google293e9850b7c2cd86

Archives

10. Crypyocurrency – Risk and Volatility

It pays to remember that Bitcoin and crypto-currency is in it’s infancy. The value of a Bitcoin is highly volatile and is highly unpredictable over the short term, so it should not be regarded as a way of saving money. Only try it out with money you can afford to lose. Personally I believe it will evolve to the point where financial control is wrested away from the banks, governments and a clutch of super rich with the power to manipulate the market. Like all investments, anyone getting on the ride early could reap the benefits as it grows. However, we are breaking totally new ground here. It is also likely that cryptocurrency could out perform fiat currency and be a lousy investment but useful only for short time transactions as an “on the spot” measure of value, rather than an investment instrument. For all we know, it could have passed it’s investment peak now. For my money, there are better investments that conserve the value of your hard won savings.

Initially the concept of Bitcoin took off and other cloned versions vied for leadership. It was viewed as shady and branded as a way crime would launder money, in it’s early days. Banks refused to recognise it, effectively making it valueless in the real world. Today several banks are looking at participating in Bitcoin. These ups and downs in perception have reflected in the price of a Bitcoin.

Recently several European and Australian Banks have quietly begun to purchase Bitcoins. The Commonwsealth Bank of Australia is looking into Bitcoin at the moment.

I believe that it’s only a matter of time and crypto currency will take over from the banks, leaving them to be expensive safe deposit houses. The world needs a universal currency and nationalistic pride will never accept any one currency. The answer is a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. Currently we lose millions in transfer fees to transact overseas. Why? We’re not loading gold onto ships any more; it’s purely digital data these days (the price of an international, micro seconds long, phone call)  but we are still paying the fees fixed in the pre-computing days when it was shipped in a flotilla with armed escort vessels. With Bitcoin it will cost no extra to transact at home or overseas. The banks require staff to do this, so they can never compete with Bitcoin.

The important consideration is, there is a maximum number of Bitcoins. There can only be 21 Million Bitcoins. Unlike currency, no-one can make any more. Over time as more and more businesses come to accept Bitcoin, the demand will increase and being capped at 21 million means the value of Bitcoin should rise proportional to the demand. If the same happened with the US Dollar, for example, the Federal Reserve could print more money which would drop the value of the dollar. No-one can do this with Bitcoin.

As in all digital matters, with time any system becomes open to vulnerabilities, so you need to keep your software up to date. I would not suggest you transact in Bitcoin on a system using Windows XP, Windows 7 or Ubuntu 13.04 Linux. These operating systems are no longer supported for security updates and would invite hackers to steal your wallet. If you prefer these old stalwart systems, transact using a smartphone with updates and store your stash in a cold store,  hardware wallet that is removed from your system, the moment the transaction is complete.